Summary
Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) recorded Q1 2026 (Jan-Mar) group revenue of $399 million (+684% YoY), with AI Cloud revenue of $390 million (+841% YoY) accounting for 98% of total revenue (earnings release, 2026-05-13). Nvidia reported a 9.3% stake in NBIS as of 2026-07-13 via Schedule 13G — including pre-funded warrants acquired on 2026-03-11 — confirmed in a 2026-07-21 filing. Nebius announced on 2026-07-17 that it had secured a $775 million senior secured loan collateralized by GPU assets and contracted customer cash flows. Q2 2026 (Apr-Jun) results are scheduled for release before market open on 2026-08-12 and had not yet been released as of the analysis date (2026-08-02).
Price-Change Context Note
The base date close was $190.41 (2026-07-31), up +1.05% from the prior day's close of $188.43, with same-day trading volume of approximately 25.70 million shares, about 20% above the recent 20-day average volume (approximately 21.43 million shares). Over the past month, capital-raising and order-related news — including Nvidia's stake disclosure, the secured loan, and new customer contracts — has intersected with competition and financing concerns, including reports that Meta was considering its own cloud buildout and widening credit default swap spreads across the AI cloud sector, with single-day swings repeatedly observed ranging from -17% to +27% (compiled from July 2026 news).
Business Overview
Nebius Group N.V. is the successor to the former Yandex N.V. (which included Russian operations); it completed the sale of its Russian business in 2024 and changed its name from Yandex N.V. to Nebius Group N.V. on 2024-08-16 (SEC EDGAR name-change record). It is registered in the Netherlands, headquartered in Amsterdam, and listed on the NASDAQ Global Select Market. Its business model is that of a neocloud operator providing GPU-as-a-Service (GPUaaS), leasing large-scale clusters built on Nvidia GPUs (H100/H200/B200/GB300, etc.) to hyperscalers and AI developers.
Data centers span Finland (75MW expansion at Mäntsälä, new 310MW at Lappeenranta), France (240MW near Lille), and the US (up to 300MW in New Jersey, gigawatt-scale in Independence, Missouri, and 1.2GW in Pennsylvania) (compiled from respective newsroom announcements, 2024-11 to 2026-05). Following the strategic partnership signed with Nvidia on 2026-03-11, the company set a target to deploy 5GW or more of Nvidia systems by the end of 2030.
5-Year Financial Trend
| Year | Revenue | YoY | Net Income (Loss) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $3.92 billion | - | -$197 million |
| 2022 | $13.5 million | -99.66% | +$677 million |
| 2023 | $9.8 million | -27.41% | -$342 million |
| 2024 | $91.5 million | +833.67% | -$641 million |
| 2025 | $529.8 million | +479.02% | +$82.5 million |
2021-2023 figures reflect the former Yandex N.V. (including Russian operations) era, and since the business structure changed fundamentally to an AI infrastructure business from 2024 onward, simple year-over-year comparisons should be treated with caution (secondary compilation from sources such as macrotrends and wallstreetzen; not reconciled against the company's original filings).
Competitor Comparison
The main publicly listed competitor in the neocloud (Nvidia GPU-based AI infrastructure leasing) sector is CoreWeave (NASDAQ: CRWV). Lambda Labs and Crusoe Energy are privately held, so confirmed quarterly results are not disclosed.
| Item | Nebius | CoreWeave |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 Revenue | $399M | $2.08B |
| RPO / Backlog | $33.59B | $99.4B |
| Q1 2026 Net Result | +$621M (net income) | -$740M (net loss) |
| 2026 Revenue Guidance (E) | $3.0-3.4B | $12.0-13.0B |
Lambda Labs had an estimated (unconfirmed) annualized revenue run rate of $500 million+ as of May 2025; Crusoe Energy reported 2024 revenue of $276 million (+82% YoY), with 2025-2026 figures not available — both are privately held and have no disclosure obligations.
Valuation (Factual Multiples)
EV/EBITDA computes to 1,338x, but this is a statistically distorted result driven by a small denominator, since adjusted EBITDA has only recently turned positive at a quarterly scale of $130 million (GAAP-basis EBITDA is not separately available). The market-cap multiple relative to end-2025 exit ARR ($1.25 billion) computes to approximately 39x, and relative to the end-2026 target ARR guidance ($7.0-9.0 billion), approximately 5.4-7.0x (a forward multiple contingent on the company achieving its guidance; actual results not yet confirmed).
Governance and Major Shareholders
Nebius maintains a three-class share structure: Class A (one vote per share), Class B (ten votes per share), and Class C (for conversion purposes). Founder Arkady Volozh holds only a small stake in his own name (118,289 RSU shares), but controls 28,655,509 Class B shares (85.56% of all Class B shares) through the family trust LASTAR Trust, giving him 51.62% of total voting power as of 2026-03-31 (economic ownership is 11.33%, 20-F Item 7). This structure satisfies Nasdaq's 'Controlled Company' status.
| Institution | Ownership % | Shares Held |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock Inc | 3.91% | 9,937,586 |
| Fred Alger Management LLC | 3.78% | 9,599,306 |
| Orbis Allan Gray Ltd | 3.27% | 8,314,766 |
| NVIDIA Corporation | 9.3% | 22,256,412 |
NVIDIA's stake (9.3% as of 2026-07-13) includes 21,065,936 pre-funded warrant shares acquired on 2026-03-11, which are restricted from exercise or disposal until 2026-09-11 (Schedule 13G, filed 2026-07-20). Reported executive insider transactions over the past 90 days (May-July 2026) — including the CEO, CTO, CPIO, and board chair — were all share dispositions, with no new acquisition transactions identified (mostly routine sales under 10b5-1 pre-arranged trading plans, compiled from Form 4 filings).
Macro Impact
| Factor | Current Value (as of) | Transmission Channel |
|---|---|---|
| US Fed Funds Rate | 3.50-3.75% (2026-07-29) | Held steady for the 5th consecutive time; sustained elevated long-term rates weigh on the cost of debt and convertible-bond financing |
| US 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.74-4.75% (2026-07-31) | Given the reliance on debt and convertible bonds to fund large-scale CAPEX, this constantly affects financing costs and discount rates |
| Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) | 11,311.1 (2026-08-01) | A pullback from mid-July highs, moving in tandem with AI infrastructure investment sentiment (indirect) |
| Nvidia GPU Lead Time | 36-52 weeks (as of early 2026) | HBM3e and CoWoS packaging supply constraints limit data-center activation timing and the pace of revenue recognition |
2026 combined CAPEX from Big Tech (Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Google) is surging +77% YoY to approximately $725 billion, and the structure whereby excess demand — unable to be met by in-house expansion due to power and site constraints — flows into neoclouds like Nebius is cited as the backdrop for revenue growth (compiled from macro.md).
Ownership and Flows
As of 2026-08-02, the most recent complete regular 13F filing is for Q1 2026 (2026-03-31); the Q2 2026 (2026-06-30) 13F is not yet available since the filing deadline (2026-08-14) has not passed. Based on short-interest balances, Days-to-Cover computes to approximately 2.8-2.9 days (a calculated figure, not directly provided by the original source).
Risk Factors
- Customer concentration: Two customers, Microsoft (up to $17.4-19.4 billion) and Meta (up to $27.0 billion), account for a significant portion of revenue growth; reports on 2026-07-01~02 that Meta was considering its own cloud buildout raised concerns that a customer could turn into a competitor.
- Supply chain: GPU procurement is effectively dependent on a single supplier, Nvidia, with lead times of 36-52 weeks due to HBM memory and CoWoS packaging supply constraints.
- Financing and leverage: The 2026 CAPEX guidance of $20-25 billion is being funded primarily through debt and convertible bonds, and the net cash position turned to net debt at -$217 million. On 2026-07-29, NBIS fell -10% amid a spike in credit default swap spreads across the AI cloud sector.
- Power and infrastructure execution: The company itself acknowledges available data-center capacity as a critical bottleneck to growth, with execution risk in the gap between the 'contracted → connected → live' stages.
- Local permitting and litigation: A lawsuit by nearby residents and animal-welfare groups over data-center construction in Birmingham, Alabama, was ruled on 2026-07-11 to be allowed to proceed.
- Governance: Volozh controls voting power (51.62%) far exceeding his economic stake (11.33%) through a family-trust structure.
- Valuation: Revenue multiples (P/S 55.53x, EV/Sales 55.78x) are elevated relative to CoreWeave (EV/Sales 3.1-4.9x), and single-day swings of -17% to +27% have recurred over the past month.
Recent News Timeline
- 2026-03-11 — Signed strategic partnership with Nvidia; raised $2.0 billion through the sale of pre-funded warrants.
- 2026-03-16 — Signed a 5-year AI infrastructure supply agreement with Meta worth up to $27.0 billion ($12.0 billion committed + $15.0 billion optional); shares rose +14% the same day.
- 2026-05-13 — Released Q1 2026 results (revenue +684% YoY); announced securing a new 1.2GW site in Pennsylvania.
- 2026-07-01~02 — Reports that Meta was considering its own cloud buildout triggered a sharp joint decline in neocloud stocks.
- 2026-07-17 — Announced completion of a $775 million senior secured loan collateralized by GPU assets and contracted customer cash flows; shares rose +8%.
- 2026-07-21 — Nvidia's 9.3% stake in NBIS confirmed via Schedule 13G filing; shares rose +18.78% intraday.
- 2026-07-29 — NBIS fell -10% amid a spike in credit default swap spreads across the AI cloud sector.
- 2026-07-30 — NBIS rose +26.9% intraday on strong AI data-center demand commentary from Microsoft and Meta; closed at $188.43.
- 2026-08-12 (scheduled) — Q2 2026 earnings release (before market open); not yet released as of the analysis date.
Theme Exposure
Fact Highlights
This is not investment advice. FomoLog provides factual summaries and post-hoc price-change context only. Investment decisions and their outcomes are solely the responsibility of the investor.
Generated by FomoLog Agent · Data sources: Korea Exchange (KRX) · NASDAQ · DART · SEC EDGAR