Analysis as of 2026-08-02 · Volume 11,956,081 shares (2026-07-31)
Fact Summary
TSMC reported Q2 2026 (2Q26, as of 2026-06-30) revenue of US$40.20B (+33.7% YoY), gross margin of 67.7%, and operating margin of 60.3%. At its 2026-07-16 earnings call, the company raised its 2026 full-year revenue growth guidance from the mid-30% range to the low-40% range, raised its CapEx guidance from US$52-56B to US$60-64B, and announced an additional US$100B increase in Arizona fab investment, bringing the cumulative total to US$265B.
Business Overview
Revenue mix by application for 2Q26 (as of 2026-06-30). "Other" is a residual calculated as 100% minus HPC and Smartphone (E). Source: TSMC 6-K (A)
5-Year Financial Trend
| Year | Revenue | YoY | Gross Margin | Operating Margin | Net Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | US$70.599B | -4.17% | Not available | Not available | Not available |
| 2024 | US$88.268B | +25.03% | 56.1% | 45.7% | 40.5% |
| 2025 | US$122.42B | +35.9% | 59.9% | 50.8% | 45.1% |
Gross margin, operating margin, and net margin for 2021-2023 are not available. 2025 figures prioritize the confirmed Form 20-F figures (A).
Peer Comparison
| Company | 2025 Revenue | Gross Margin | 2026 CapEx |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSMC | US$132.9B (foundry revenue) | 59.9% (annual) | US$60-64B |
| Samsung Foundry | approx. US$12.9B | Not available | KRW 110 trillion (combined semiconductor total, not foundry alone) |
| Intel Foundry | Not available | Operating loss (US$2.4B in Q1 2026) | Not available |
Exact gross margin and individual CapEx figures for Samsung and Intel Foundry are not available.
Valuation
Source: stockanalysis.com (as of 2026-08-02). A complete single-source set unified to the same reference date is not available — other sources (e.g., macrotrends) show slight variance, with PER of 26.21-29.11x and EV/EBITDA of 17.81-18.02x.
Supply & Demand
Institutional ownership percentages vary widely across sources, from 14.5% to 47.2%, so a single confirmed figure is not available. On 2026-06-23, a VP-level executive transferred 500,000 common shares as a gift, confirmed as a gift rather than a sale. Other executive transactions are mostly small, recurring acquisitions through the Employee Stock Purchase Plan (ESPP), with no clear directional signal.
Governance & Disclosure
| Item | Details | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Largest Shareholder | National Development Fund, Executive Yuan, Taiwan 6.38% | 2026-02-28 |
| Board Composition | 10 total (3 internal directors, 7 independent directors) | 2026-02-28 |
| Chairman & CEO | C.C. Wei | 2026-02-28 |
| ADR Share | 20.49% of total shares outstanding held in depositary name | 2026-02-28 |
The National Development Fund is the largest shareholder, but its ownership stake falls short of a controlling level, and the Form 20-F states the company is not aware of any arrangement that would result in a change of control. The new fabs in Arizona (US), Kumamoto (Japan), and Dresden (Germany) are joint ventures with local companies including Sony Semiconductor Solutions, Denso, Toyota Motor, Bosch, Infineon, and NXP.
Risk Factors
- Geopolitical: Taiwan accounts for more than 90% of global advanced logic chip production, resulting in high supply chain exposure in the event of geopolitical tension (private research aggregation, not cross-checked against primary sources).
- Customer Concentration: As of 2024, the top 10 customers accounted for 76% of revenue; by 2026, the mix shifted to Nvidia at approximately 19% and Apple at approximately 17% (CNBC, 2026-01-26).
- Environment & Resources: Taiwan's total water demand is estimated to increase 7.3% by 2036 compared to 2021, raising concerns about supply shortages (private research aggregation).
- New Process Ramp-up: Due to initial yield and cost burdens of the 2nm (N2) node, the company's guided gross margin range for Q3 is approximately 1.7 percentage points lower than Q2 (company disclosure, 2026-07-16).
- Intensifying Competition: Samsung and Intel Foundry are investing heavily in CapEx to expand market share, but the current gap with TSMC remains wide at 62.7 percentage points.
The full original list of risk factors from TSMC's official Form 20-F Item 3.D is not available — this research is based primarily on secondary reporting.
Macro Environment
TSMC's revenue is almost entirely denominated in USD, while approximately 75% of its cost of goods sold is denominated in TWD, meaning that a 1% appreciation of the Taiwan dollar reduces gross margin by approximately 40bp, as explained by the company (2Q25 earnings call). As of 2026-08-01, the exchange rate (32.31) shows the Taiwan dollar slightly weaker than the rate assumption (1 USD = 32 TWD) underlying the company's guided Q3 gross margin range. Under the 2026-01-15 US-Taiwan trade agreement, US reciprocal tariffs on Taiwanese products were adjusted from 20% to 15%, and Taiwan committed to US$250B in semiconductor investment in the US.
Price-Change Context Note
The closing price as of 2026-07-31 was $404.25, up +0.23% from the previous close ($403.31). In the preceding trading days, the stock declined amid broad downward pressure across the semiconductor sector on 2026-07-28~29 (including a day when TSMC's market capitalization fell by approximately US$119B), followed by a period of heightened volatility in which TSM shares rebounded roughly +7% day-over-day on 2026-07-30, driven by Microsoft's earnings report.
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Fact Highlights
This is not investment advice. FomoLog provides factual summaries and post-hoc price-change context only. Investment decisions and their outcomes are solely the responsibility of the investor.
Generated by FomoLog Agent · Data sources: Korea Exchange (KRX) · NASDAQ · DART · SEC EDGAR