Fact Summary
Moderna reported 2025 revenue of $1.944 billion (down from $3.236 billion the prior year) and a GAAP net loss of $2.822 billion (10-K, filed 2026-02-20). Q1 2026 revenue was $389 million, with a GAAP net loss of $1.343 billion, which included a $900 million non-recurring charge for the Arbutus/Genevant patent litigation settlement (8-K, 2026-05-01). The seasonal flu vaccine mRNA-1010 (mFLUSIVA) received a unanimous 9-0 vote from the FDA advisory committee (VRBPAC) on 2026-06-18 that benefits outweigh risks, with the FDA's final decision (PDUFA) due 2026-08-05. Q2 2026 results are scheduled for release on 2026-07-31.
Price-Change Context Note
Moderna's share price rose sharply in the first half of 2026, then pulled back near its 52-week high in early July before closing at $55.805 on the as-of date (2026-07-28), up +0.31% from the previous close. Short interest as of the 2026-07-15 settlement date stood at 14.16% of float (secondary aggregation, a downtrend from 17.98% in January 2026), and shifts in options-market and short-interest indicators are being observed ahead of the 2026-07-31 earnings release and the 2026-08-05 FDA final decision.
Business Overview & Pipeline
A Nasdaq-listed biotechnology company based on mRNA (messenger ribonucleic acid) technology, headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA. The company grew rapidly in 2020-2021 on its COVID-19 vaccine (Spikevax), but revenue has fallen sharply since pandemic-era demand receded, and it is now transitioning toward a pipeline of combination respiratory vaccines, oncology, and rare-disease programs (2026-06-25 Science Day; sources: Moderna press releases/Nasdaq/BioSpace).
Other pipeline programs: oncology (9 Phase 2/3 trials targeting 2026 readouts, including the personalized mRNA neoantigen therapy intismeran autogene), rare disease (mRNA-3705, selected for the FDA START program), and the in vivo CAR-T program mRNA-6007 (entering early-stage development for autoimmune disease, disclosed 2026-06-25). Discontinued: the congenital cytomegalovirus (CMV) program; HSV and VZV have not advanced to Phase 3 (source: Moderna Science Day, 2026-06-25).
5-Year Financial Trend
| Fiscal Year | Revenue | GAAP Net Income (Loss) |
|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $18.47B | +$12.2B |
| FY2022 | $19.26B | +$8.4B |
| FY2023 | $6.85B | −$4.714B |
| FY2024 | $3.24B | −$3.561B |
| FY2025 | $1.944B | −$2.822B |
As of each fiscal year-end · Source: compiled from 10-K (2026-02-20) and 8-K earnings releases (A)
Peer Comparison
The core direct competitive landscape in the mRNA platform space centers on Moderna and BioNTech/Pfizer; BioNTech filed a patent infringement lawsuit against Moderna's mNEXSPIKE on 2026-02-19 (ongoing). The global mRNA vaccine market is projected to expand from $6.85 billion in 2026 to $25.64 billion by 2034 (E, Fortune Business Insights), and China's share of global mRNA clinical development has grown from 15% five years ago to 46% (reported 2026-03-26).
Valuation Multiples (Factual)
Confirmed P/E, P/B, and EV/EBITDA figures on a unified as-of date are not available — the multiples above are secondary-source aggregations calculated at differing points in time (valuation.md).
Supply & Demand Trends
Based on aggregated Q1 2026 13F filings (as of 2026-03-31), 336 institutions increased their positions while 246 reduced them — FMR LLC (+17.627 million shares), Capital World Investors, and Goldman Sachs Group were among the top buyers, while BlackRock and Susquehanna International Group were among the top sellers (secondary aggregation, HedgeFollow/MarketBeat). The Q2 2026 13F (as of 2026-06-30) had not yet been filed as of the as-of date (2026-07-29); under the 45-day grace period rule it is expected to be filed in mid-August 2026. Insider transactions include a 53,336-share open-market disposal by President Stephen Hoge under a 2026-07-15 pre-arranged trading plan (Rule 10b5-1) and a 703-share disposal by CFO James Mock for tax-withholding purposes; no pattern of large-scale discretionary disposals was identified (Form 4, SEC EDGAR).
Governance & Major Shareholders
At the 2026-05-06 annual shareholder meeting, Paul Sagan was not renominated to the board and departed; on 2026-07-08, Michael McDonnell (former Biogen CFO) was newly appointed as a Class II director (joining the Audit Committee), bringing the board to nine members as of the as-of date (8-K, 2026-07-08/2026-05-11). The Arbutus/Genevant patent litigation was resolved by settlement on 2026-03-03, and on 2026-03-02 Chief Medical Officer Jacqueline Miller resigned, with David Berman appointed as the new Chief Development Officer.
| Shareholder | Ownership Stake | As-of Date / Source |
|---|---|---|
| FMR LLC (Fidelity) | 10.4% | Schedule 13G/A, filed 2026-02-06 |
| The Vanguard Group | Not available (fragmented) | Reporting has been split across subsidiary entities since a 2026-01 reorganization; the prior consolidated figure of 9.8% (2024-04-10) requires updating |
| BlackRock, Inc. | 6.4% | Schedule 13G/A, filed 2024-01-29 (no confirmed update since) |
| Baillie Gifford & Co | 5.2% | Schedule 13G/A, filed 2026-02-09 |
DEF 14A (2026-03-16), 8-K (2026-07-08) · SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001682852)
Macro Impact
As of 2026-07-29 · Sources: KB Think, 247wallst, ArentFox Schiff, Washington Post, CIDRAP, etc. (macro.md)
Risk Factors
- Against year-end 2025 cash and investments of $8.135 billion, annual cash burn has been substantial, and the company has stated a target of reaching cash breakeven by 2028 (company disclosure, E). Year-end 2026 cash and investments are projected at $4.5-5.0 billion (E), a substantial decline from year-end 2025.
- The outcome of the FDA's final decision on mRNA-1010 (mFLUSIVA), due 2026-08-05, remained undetermined as of the as-of date and will decide whether the company secures a fifth approved product.
- The U.S. HHS's halt of mRNA federal funding and the shift in policy stance are negatively affecting the channel of government procurement revenue and R&D cost burden.
- The Arbutus/Genevant settlement leaves open the possibility of up to $1.3 billion in additional payments depending on the outcome of an appeal, and BioNTech's mNEXSPIKE patent infringement lawsuit remains undetermined.
- If some of the 9 oncology Phase 2/3 trials (targeting 2026 readouts) fall short of expectations, market assessment of pipeline growth potential could shift. There is a track record of discontinuation, including the prior congenital cytomegalovirus (CMV) program and HSV/VZV not advancing to Phase 3.
- Confirmed P/E and EV/EBITDA figures on a unified as-of date are not available, and multiple metrics vary significantly by source (valuation.md).
Recent Filings & News Timeline
- 2026-02-10 — FDA issues a Refusal-to-File notice for the mRNA-1010 (seasonal flu vaccine) application
- 2026-02-18 — FDA decides to resume review of mRNA-1010 (standard approval track for ages 50-64, accelerated approval track for ages 65+; PDUFA date set for 2026-08-05)
- 2026-02-19 — BioNTech files a patent infringement lawsuit against mNEXSPIKE in Delaware federal court
- 2026-03-03 — Settles all patent litigation with Arbutus/Genevant (initial payment of $950 million)
- 2026-03-02 — CMO resigns; David Berman appointed as new Chief Development Officer
- 2026-04-22 — European Commission approves mCOMBRIAX (combination flu + COVID-19 vaccine) for ages 50 and older
- 2026-05-01 — Reports Q1 2026 results (revenue of $389 million)
- 2026-06-18 — FDA advisory committee (VRBPAC) votes 9-0 unanimously in favor of mRNA-1010
- 2026-06-25 — Holds Science Day, presenting its 4 approved products and late-stage pipeline
- 2026-07-06/08 — Newly appoints director Michael McDonnell (joining the Audit Committee)
- 2026-07-09 — Announces Q2 2026 earnings release date (2026-07-31)
- 2026-07-28 — Closes at $55.805, up +0.31% from the previous close
The as-of-date (2026-07-29) closing price and percentage change could not be confirmed due to conflicting figures across sources (reports of $55.80 vs. $70.07), and a news item found during research referencing a 'U.S. government supply agreement' was identified as an older article from 2022-07-29 and excluded (news.md).
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Generated by FomoLog Agent · Data sources: Korea Exchange · NASDAQ · DART · SEC EDGAR