CENTRUS ENERGY CORP

Valuation (Factual Multiples)

This is significantly above the Oil & Gas industry average trailing PER of 13.8x, a multiple comparison suggesting the market has priced future earnings growth tied to HALEU commercialization and execution of long-term DOE contracts into the current share price (aggregated from GuruFocus/stockanalysis.com; not a judgment of over- or under-valuation).

5-Year Financial Trends

Business Overview and HALEU Growth Drivers

FY2025 revenue mix (based on TradingView's SEC 10-K summary). Centrus is the only domestic uranium enrichment company in the United States and the only Western company licensed to produce HALEU.

Centrus's LEU segment revenue still relies substantially on the import and resale of low-enriched uranium sourced from Russia's TENEX, and under the Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act, which took effect in May 2024, imports of Russian-origin LEU into the U.S. are generally prohibited except where the Department of Energy grants a waiver (SEC 10-K FY2025).

The Piketon, Ohio HALEU production facility began enrichment in October 2023 and made its first delivery to the U.S. Department of Energy in November 2023. In January 2026, the DOE selected subsidiary American Centrifuge Operating, LLC to carry out a task order expanding commercial-scale HALEU production at the Piketon facility, and on July 1, 2026, the contract was finalized at up to 1.07 billion dollars including options (base fixed price of 900 million dollars). The contract includes a delivery obligation of 1 MTU of HALEU UF6 by March 2032, with additional deliveries of 5 MTU each available if options are exercised (PRNewswire, 2026-07-01; 8-K, 2026-06-30).

The commercial LEU segment order backlog was disclosed at 2.3 billion dollars (as-of date not clearly specified), while separate reporting cites an order backlog of 3.9 billion dollars through 2040 — the precise as-of dates and scope underlying these two figures are not confirmed.

Peer Comparison

Urenco and Orano have consortium/state-ownership structures that limit direct market-cap comparison. Russia's TENEX (a Rosatom affiliate) is also noted as a traditional LEU supplier and as a source of supply loss under the import-ban legislation.

Macro Environment — Separative Work Unit (SWU) Pricing

As of July 23, 2026, the uranium spot price (U3O8) stood at 85.84 dollars per pound, having declined from 101.41 dollars at the start of 2026 before stabilizing in the 84-87 dollar range during Q2. The Federal Reserve held its policy rate at 3.50%-3.75% at its July 29, 2026 FOMC meeting, and the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.65%-4.74% as of July 31, 2026. Centrus secured low-cost funding through 350 million dollars of 2.25% convertible notes issued in November 2024, but the current high-rate environment could weigh on funding costs for any additional capital raised to expand the Piketon facility.

Supply and Demand — Short Interest, Institutional Ownership, and Insiders

Institutional ownership is reported at 448 institutions holding a combined 14,764,976 shares, though the reported ownership percentage varies widely across sources, from 49.96% to 85.5%, making it difficult to treat as a single confirmed figure. Individual Schedule 13G filings confirm holdings of 7.6% for BlackRock, 6.91% for Bank of Nova Scotia, and 6.41% for Global X. Insider activity includes one open-market sale of 306 shares by CFO Todd M. Tinelli in May 2026; aside from this, most transactions were RSU grants or share redemptions for tax withholding — compensation-related transactions that are difficult to interpret as market signals.

Governance and Disclosures

The combined stake of the three shareholders above is separately reported at approximately 18% in the FY2025 10-K (as of 2025-12-31; the table above is as of 2026-03-27, a somewhat different date).

Toshiba America Energy Systems Corporation holds 718,200 shares of Class B common stock (99.9% of Class B shares, approximately 3.66% of total shares outstanding), and while its voting rights are limited, it holds the right to appoint one director (the Investor-Designated Director). At the annual shareholder meeting on June 18, 2026, the seventh amendment to the Section 382 Rights Agreement (poison pill) was approved, extending its expiration to June 30, 2029 (stated purpose: protection of net operating loss carryforwards). The U.S. Department of Energy holds no equity stake in Centrus; the relationship is purely contractual (lease of the Piketon facility and HALEU production contracts).

Fact-Based Risk Factors

• Reliance on LEU imports from Russia's TENEX — revenue is contingent on obtaining Department of Energy waivers under the import-ban legislation
• Concentration in large-scale contracts with the Department of Energy — disclosures reference uncertainty over future task order awards and possible implementation delays tied to funding availability
• Cost, schedule, and operational execution burden of transitioning from the demonstration stage to multi-year commercial-scale production
• Trailing PER of 62.18x and EV/EBITDA of 67.91x, both elevated versus industry averages, alongside a -13.2% downward revision to Q2 consensus EPS over the past 60 days
• Debt-to-equity ratio of 1.52x (as of 2026-03-31) indicates non-trivial leverage, and the planned 350-500 million dollars in annual capital allocation could face funding cost pressure in the current high-rate environment

Recent Disclosure and News Timeline

• 2026-01-05~01-06: DOE announces selection of American Centrifuge Operating, LLC for the 900 million dollar Piketon expansion task order
• 2026-02-10: Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings release (FY revenue 448.7 million dollars, net income 77.8 million dollars) and initial FY2026 revenue guidance
• 2026-05-05~06: Q1 2026 earnings release (revenue 76.7 million dollars, GAAP net income 10.0 million dollars); FY2026 revenue guidance raised to 450-500 million dollars
• 2026-06-18: Non-binding letter of intent signed with Oklo Inc. for HALEU supply; seventh amendment to the Section 382 poison pill approved
• 2026-07-01: Contract with the U.S. Department of Energy for commercial HALEU production, worth up to 1.07 billion dollars including options, finalized
• 2026-07-07: Announcement of invitation to join the S&P SmallCap 600 Index
• 2026-08-05 (scheduled): Q2 earnings release (after market close); conference call scheduled for 2026-08-06