Vistra Corp.

Business Overview

Vistra is an integrated retail electricity and power generation company headquartered in Irving, Texas, that also engages in wholesale power purchasing and sales, commodity risk management, and fuel production and logistics. Per the FY2025 10-K, the company is organized into five business segments — Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure — with a generation portfolio mixing nuclear (Comanche Peak, Braidwood, Byron, and others), natural gas, coal, renewables, and battery storage assets (10-K FY2025).

The company's 2026 guidance figures are adjusted EBITDA (from ongoing operations) of $6.8–$7.6 billion and adjusted free cash flow (before growth investments) of $3.925–$4.725 billion, excluding contributions from the Cogentrix acquisition (a 5,500 MW natural gas generation portfolio, valued at approximately $4 billion) and the Meta power purchase agreement (announced 2026-02-26, reaffirmed 2026-05).

Five-Year Financial Trend

2025 net income was $944 million (net income attributable to common stock of $752 million, diluted EPS of $2.18), down from 2024, reflecting an $808 million pre-tax unrealized loss related to hedges (10-K FY2025). Q1 2026 net income was $1.029 billion, turning positive from a net loss of -$268 million in the same period a year earlier (8-K, 2026-05).

Valuation Metrics

Enterprise value (EV) is $70.30 billion and EV/FCF is 38.84x (stockanalysis.com, as of 2026-07-31). The 52-week price change is -28.43%, below both the 50-day moving average ($156.15) and the 200-day moving average ($163.80). A direct comparison table of peer-average P/E/EV-EBITDA, P/B, and payout ratio was not obtained.

Peer Comparison

Vistra's principal competitors cited include Constellation Energy (CEG), NRG Energy (NRG), Talen Energy (TLN), American Electric Power (AEP), Exelon (EXC), Southern Company (SO), and The AES Corporation (AES). Among these, Constellation, Talen, and Vistra are grouped together as flagship data-center-power-themed stocks that hold large nuclear assets and have signed direct power purchase agreements with hyperscalers. Constellation has the largest pure nuclear weighting, while Talen is a smaller, restructured operator centered on a single Pennsylvania nuclear plant (Susquehanna); Vistra, by contrast, is characterized by a mixed portfolio with a large Texas natural gas generation weighting alongside its retail business. In the Texas retail electricity market, NRG Energy is identified as Vistra's largest competitor.

[Not obtained] A same-as-of-date comparison table of peer P/E/EV-EBITDA multiples, an exact comparison of nuclear and gas generation capacity (MW), and a comparison of PJM capacity auction awards were not confirmed within the scope of this research.

Supply and Demand Trends

As of 2026-07-15, short interest is reported at 3.77% of the float (MarketBeat). Institutional ownership varies across sources — 84.84% (stockanalysis.com) to 90.88% (MarketBeat) — and is treated as an estimate rather than a confirmed figure. Over the trailing 12 months, institutional trading activity (MarketBeat aggregation, primary data not cross-checked) shows 962 institutions increasing positions and 612 decreasing positions, with inflows ($9.10 billion) exceeding outflows ($5.80 billion). In the 2026-07-29 session, call option volume surged approximately 30% to 39,705 contracts versus the typical 30,452 contracts (per DailyPolitical/Barchart reporting). The options put/call ratio is 0.53 by volume and 0.89–1.47 by open interest, and due to inconsistency across sources is not treated as a confirmed figure.

[Not obtained] Dark pool trading share, direct cross-checking of SEC EDGAR 13F primary data, and the latest Form 4 filings as of August 2026 were not confirmed within the scope of this research.

Governance and Ownership Structure

All holders of 5% or more are Schedule 13G/13G-A filers (passive investment), with no history of Schedule 13D filings for control purposes (DEF 14A 2026-03-18, SEC EDGAR). Of the 11 director nominees, 10 are independent directors, and the roles of Board Chair (Scott B. Helm) and CEO (James A. Burke) are separated. In June 2026, multiple open-market stock dispositions by directors and officers (Form 4 Code S) were filed in succession shortly after the May annual equity award vesting (Code A), with most of the directors' dispositions specified as made under Rule 10b5-1 trading plans adopted in March 2026.

Macro Environment

A decline in natural gas prices lowers fuel costs for gas-fired generation but can compress the generation segment's spark spread, resulting in a mixed effect that offsets retail-segment margin improvement, per research (EIA). PJM capacity prices reaching the policy cap for a second consecutive year, along with ERCOT supply-demand tightening driven by a data-center large-load interconnection queue of 233 GW (+269% YoY), were found to increase visibility into contracted revenue (PJM, EIA/Utility Dive). Rising long-term interest rates were found to be a downward pressure factor both on the relative attractiveness of dividend-paying utilities and on the cost of capital for new generation investment (ainvest).

Recent News Timeline

• 2026-07-29 · The board declared a quarterly common stock dividend of $0.23 per share (payable 2026-09-30) and a semi-annual Series A preferred stock dividend of $40.00 per share (payable 2026-10-15) (PR Newswire)
• 2026-07-27 · Shares fell 3.3% amid a broad decline in data-center-power-themed stocks including Constellation, Talen, and NRG (Quiver Quantitative)
• 2026-07-14 · Secured approximately 10,566 MW at cap-level pricing (approximately $333.44/MW-day) in the PJM 2028/2029 capacity auction (StockTitan/8-K)
• 2026-06-11 · Launched Helix Digital Infrastructure, a data-center power infrastructure joint venture with KKR, Kuwait Investment Authority, and NVIDIA, participating as the preferred power supplier (BusinessWire)
• 2026-03-17 · Fitch upgraded the long-term issuer rating to investment grade BBB- (Vistra IR)
• 2026-01-09 · Signed a 20-year nuclear power purchase agreement with Meta — totaling 2,609 MW (Vistra IR)
• 2026-01-05 · Entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Cogentrix Energy's natural gas generation assets (approximately 5,500 MW) (Vistra IR)

[Not obtained] The actual figures for the Q2 earnings release scheduled for 2026-08-07 had not yet been published as of this research's as-of date (2026-08-02).

Risk Factors

• Leverage Total debt of $20.57 billion, net debt/EBITDA of approximately 2.6x — several market commentaries cite leverage and refinancing burden as the near-term top risk factor (Money Morning)
• Regulatory Uncertainty Filed a formal objection with FERC in March 2026 regarding PJM's specific interconnection rights structure — creating uncertainty for the development timeline of generation assets adjacent to data centers (Yahoo Finance)
• Nuclear Plant Operations An unplanned, extended outage at Comanche Peak, Byron, Braidwood, or others could reduce generation output during the term of contracted power purchase agreements (Sahm Capital)
• Earnings Volatility Mark-to-market fluctuations in commodity price hedge positions are a structural factor amplifying quarterly and annual net income volatility (an $808 million pre-tax unrealized loss in 2025)
• Share Price Volatility 52-week price change of -28.43% and a beta of 1.41, indicating higher volatility relative to the market (stockanalysis.com)

[Not obtained] Specific debt maturity schedule, recent capacity-factor and outage history by nuclear asset, and details of litigation- and environment-related contingent liabilities were not confirmed within the scope of this research.