Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
Factual Summary
Chipotle Mexican Grill reported Q2 2026 (quarter ended 2026-06-30) revenue of 3.3 billion USD (+9.3% YoY), net income of 403.5 million USD, and diluted EPS of 0.32 USD (Source: Chipotle Newsroom press release, 2026-07-29). Same-store sales grew +2.2% YoY (average check +1.2%, transactions +1.0%), an improvement from Q1 2026 (+0.5%). During Q2 the company opened 100 new restaurants (including 80 with Chipotlanes), bringing total company-operated restaurants to 4,186, and raised its full-year 2026 same-store sales growth outlook from 'flat' to 'low single-digit increase.' Operating margin for the period declined to 15.7%, down from 18.2% in the prior-year period.
Change Context Note
The reference-date (2026-07-29) closing price of 34.24 USD rose +2.18% versus the prior day, representing the regular-session close before that same day's Q2 2026 earnings release (Source: confirmed market data). On the earnings call, the company stated that Cyclospora-related industry-wide softness in consumer sentiment had an approximately 2-percentage-point negative impact on sales in the second half of July 2026, an effect also reflected in Q3 same-store sales figures (Source: CNBC, citing the 2026-07-29 earnings call).
Business Overview
Chipotle Mexican Grill is a fast-casual Mexican grill chain built primarily around company-operated restaurants (with minimal franchising). Expansion of Chipotlanes (drive-thru pickup lanes) is a core growth strategy — of the 100 new restaurants opened in Q2 2026, 80 included a Chipotlane (Source: Chipotle Newsroom, 2026-07-29).
5-Year Financial Trend
2025 revenue growth was +5.41%, a significant slowdown compared to the double-digit growth of 2021–2024 (respectively +14.4%, +14.3%, +14.6%) (Source: 10-K aggregation). 2025 net income was 1.54 billion USD, essentially flat versus 2024 (1.53 billion USD).
Note: Following the 50-for-1 stock split effective June 26, 2024, EPS figures before and after 2022 are not directly comparable (pre- and post-split basis differ).
Not available: full year-by-year operating margin series for 2021–2025, ROE/ROA, 5-year cash flow trend, debt ratio
Competitor Comparison
Chipotle's Q2 2026 same-store sales growth of +2.2% improved from Q1 (+0.5%), but still trailed Cava's +9.7% on the same Q1 basis.
| Company | PER(trailing) | EV/EBITDA | P/S |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chipotle (CMG) | 27.88x | 19.81x | 3.6x |
| Cava (CAVA) | Not available | Not available | 7.4x |
| Sweetgreen (SG) | 23.9x | 251.5x | Not available |
Reference date: mid-June through early July 2026 (individual reference dates vary) · Source: gurufocus.com, fool.com · Not available: Wingstop/Qdoba multiples, comparison of each company's new-store opening pace
Valuation (Factual Multiples)
Not available: exact reference closing dates used by each source for the multiples above, exact disclosure date for shares outstanding, dividend yield
Supply/Demand · Institutional Ownership · Short Interest
Per FINRA aggregated data (settlement date 2026-07-15), short interest stood at 50,630,812 shares, approximately 4.0% of float, with a days-to-cover ratio of approximately 3.0 days (Source: MarketBeat aggregation; not cross-checked against primary FINRA data). Per Q1 2026 (as of 2026-03-31) 13F filings, institutional ownership was 91.3%, with 450 institutions increasing positions and 715 institutions decreasing positions during the quarter. Q2 2026 (as of 6/30) 13F filings are not yet available, as the filing deadline (2026-08-14) falls after the analysis reference date (2026-07-30).
Notable institutional changes (as of Q1 2026): Capital World Investors -20.7% (reduced by 21.01 million shares), Morgan Stanley -22.0% (reduced by 5.08 million shares), Assetmark Inc. +63.2% (increased by 216,000 shares). Trading volume of 18,926,330 shares on 2026-07-29 was approximately +19% above the 20-day average (15,922,834 shares), coinciding with the Q2 2026 earnings release on the same day (Source: MarketBeat, SEC 8-K).
Insider transactions in 2026 year-to-date totaled 8 acquisitions and 12 dispositions, skewed toward dispositions, though most appear to be routine transactions such as tax withholding and director compensation stock grants (no-cost) (Source: StockTitan Form 4 aggregation; detailed share counts/prices from original filings not available).
Not available: dark pool/off-exchange short volume share, Q2 2026 13F institutional flow data, detailed share counts/prices from original insider transaction filings
Governance
As of 2026-04-15 (DEF 14A, 1,285.4 million shares outstanding), the largest shareholder is The Vanguard Group (11.25%; note the latest consolidated stake following the 2026-03-26 corporate reorganization is not available), followed by Capital World Investors at 7.92%. Combined ownership by all current directors and executive officers (15 individuals) is relatively low at 0.45%.
The CEO is Scott Boatwright (appointed interim CEO in August 2024 following predecessor Brian Niccol's departure to Starbucks, later confirmed as permanent CEO), while the Chairman role is held separately by Scott Maw, meaning the CEO and Chairman roles are not combined. The CFO role passed to Adam Rymer following the retirement of longtime CFO Jack Hartung (exact effective date not available). Josh Weinstein (CEO of Carnival Corporation & plc) was newly appointed to the board in November 2025. The 2026 DEF 14A makes no mention of any proxy contest.
Not available: Vanguard's latest consolidated stake following its affiliate restructuring, BlackRock's and State Street's latest 2025–2026 stakes, exact CFO/COO appointment dates, detailed compensation policy targets
Macro Environment
| Factor | Reference-Date Value | Impact Path on CMG |
|---|---|---|
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.50–3.75% | Held steady for a 5th consecutive meeting on 2026-07-29; sustained high rates are cited as a potential constraint on dining-out spending among low-to-middle income consumers |
| US CPI (Headline/Core) | +3.5% / +2.6% | As of 2026-06, trending lower month-over-month |
| Beef Carcass Prices | Choice 363.43 USD/cwt | As of 2026-07-29; the company directly cited this as the primary driver of the rise in Q2 food cost mix (29.7%) |
| Avocados (Hass carton) | 23.25–25.25 USD/carton | As of 2026-03; was a cost tailwind in Q2, though a seasonal rebound in Q3 is cited |
| California Fast-Food Minimum Wage | 20.00 USD/hr | No further increase in 2026 since taking effect in April 2024; a structural factor behind the rise in labor cost mix (25.0%) |
| Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) | 101.4 | As of 2026-06, above 100 (expansion) for an 8th consecutive month; broader industry demand recovery is cited as context for CMG's improved transaction counts |
Not available: detailed feed-grain and livestock cost indicators, minimum wage increase rates for other states with high store concentration outside California, quantified currency exposure figures
Recent News Timeline
- 2026-07-29 (16:10 ET): Q2 2026 (quarter ended 2026-06-30) earnings released — revenue 3.3 billion USD (+9.3% YoY), net income 403.5 million USD, diluted EPS 0.32 USD, same-store sales +2.2%, digital sales mix 38.3%, 100 new restaurants opened, Q2 share buybacks of 630.7 million USD (average price 32.55 USD) (Source: PR Newswire, Chipotle Newsroom, primary)
- 2026-07-29: Company raised its full-year 2026 same-store sales growth outlook from 'flat' to 'low single-digit increase'; maintained plan for 350–370 new openings (including 10–15 international partner locations) (Source: same press release, primary)
- 2026-07-29 earnings call: Management noted that Cyclospora-related industry-wide softness in consumer sentiment had an approximately 2-percentage-point negative impact on sales in the second half of July 2026, an effect also reflected in Q3 same-store sales figures (Source: CNBC, secondary, citing earnings call)
- 2026-07-17: Taylor Farms (sourced from central Mexico) began a recall of iceberg lettuce — related to a CDC investigation into 1,645 confirmed Cyclospora cases across 34 US states; Chipotle stated it does not use shredded iceberg lettuce and that its romaine/supergreens mix is not sourced from Mexico (Source: CDC, Chipotle statement, primary/secondary)
- 2026-04-29: Q1 2026 (quarter ended 2026-03-29) earnings released — revenue 3.1 billion USD, same-store sales +0.5%, net income 302.8 million USD/EPS 0.23 USD, digital sales mix 38.6% (Source: Chipotle Newsroom, primary)
- 2025-12-18–2026-01-08: In an investor lawsuit related to portion sizes, a Los Angeles federal court initially dismissed the case (finding insufficient evidence of systematic fraud) and granted leave to amend; following the plaintiffs' amended complaint, Chipotle filed a renewed motion to dismiss (Source: Yahoo Finance, TheStreet, secondary)
Risk Factors
- Past foodborne-illness-related litigation remains an ongoing contingent liability, though specific claim amounts and case counts are not available without access to the latest original 10-K filing.
- The July 2026 Cyclospora outbreak was confirmed to originate from lettuce supplied by Taylor Farms de Mexico (for Taco Bell), with no direct connection to Chipotle's ingredients; however, the indirect impact of industry-wide food safety issues on brand trust remains a standing risk.
- The main driver of weak 2025 same-store sales was a decline in visit frequency (transaction counts), and whether transaction counts recover remains a key variable cited for 2026.
- Rising food and labor cost mix drove operating margin down to 15.7% in Q2 2026 (from 18.2% in the prior-year period).
- Among fast-casual competitors, Cava's same-store sales growth (+9.7% in Q1 2026) significantly outpaced Chipotle's (+0.5%), indicating intensifying competition.
- The 52-week stock price is cited as down -38.27% per web search sources (reference date unclear).
Not available: full list of risk factors from the latest original 10-K/10-Q filings (SEC EDGAR access unsuccessful), number and claim amounts of pending litigation, details of supply chain concentration, cybersecurity/privacy disclosure content
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Generated by FomoLog Agent · Data sources: Korea Exchange · NASDAQ · DART · SEC EDGAR