Factual Summary
Tesla's FY2025 (fiscal year ended December 2025) revenue was 94.827 billion USD, down 2.9% year-over-year, and GAAP net income was 3.794 billion USD, down 46.5% year-over-year. Full-year 2025 deliveries fell for a second consecutive year to approximately 1.64 million units, with BYD surpassing Tesla in global deliveries on a pure battery electric vehicle (BEV) basis. The Q2 production and delivery results announced on 2026-07-02 exceeded market expectations with 480,126 deliveries (up 25% year-over-year), and Q2 earnings are scheduled for release after market close on 2026-07-22. Robotaxi service has expanded its operating area to Austin, Dallas, Houston, and Miami, and the unveiling of the third-generation model of the humanoid robot Optimus is planned for late July to early August 2026.
Price Change Context Note
The closing price on the analysis date of 2026-07-17 was 380.84 USD, down 2.61% from the previous trading day's close (391.06 USD). This decline occurred amid a period of share-price volatility following the disclosure of a large short position and the first fatal accident involving the Tesla Semi truck, both on 2026-07-01~02, and shares also fell 3.19% in a single day on the 13th of the same month. The market is now awaiting the Q2 earnings release scheduled for 2026-07-22.
Business Overview
Tesla is organized into two reportable segments: Automotive and Energy Generation and Storage. The Automotive segment includes the design, manufacture, sale, and lease of pure electric vehicles, sales of automotive regulatory credits, and service revenue such as used vehicles, paid Supercharging, and insurance; the Energy segment includes the sale, lease, and servicing of energy storage and generation products such as Megapack and Powerwall. FY2025 Automotive & Services segment revenue was 82.056 billion USD (-6%), and Energy Generation and Storage segment revenue was 12.771 billion USD (+27%). Model 3 and Model Y together accounted for approximately 97% of Q4 2025 deliveries, reflecting heavy reliance on volume models. Robotaxi (unsupervised operation in Austin, Dallas, Houston, and Miami), full self-driving (FSD Supervised), and development of the humanoid robot Optimus are being pursued in parallel as new businesses.
5-Year Financial Trend (FY2021~FY2025)
| Year | Gross Margin | Operating Margin | Net Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | 25.3% | 12.1% | 10.3% |
| FY2022 | 25.6% | 16.8% | 15.4% |
| FY2023 | 18.2% | 9.2% | 15.5% |
| FY2024 | 17.9% | 7.8% | 7.3% |
| FY2025 | 18.0% | 4.6% | 4.0% |
Gross margin rebounded slightly in 2025 (17.9%→18.0%), but operating margin fell to 4.6%, the lowest in five years. This is interpreted as the combined effect of declining vehicle selling prices and an estimated increase in operating expenses from expanded investment in new businesses such as robotaxi, FSD, and Optimus; a detailed cost-item breakdown is not available. Free cash flow rose 73.7% year-over-year to 6.22 billion USD in 2025, contrasting with the declining profit trend.
Peer Comparison
| Company | 2026 Q2 Deliveries | 2025 Annual Deliveries |
|---|---|---|
| Tesla | 480,126 units | approx. 1.64 million units |
| BYD (Pure BEV) | 557,090 units | approx. 2.25 million units |
| Rivian | 12,194 units | 42,247 units |
| Lucid | 3,953 units | Not available |
In Q2 2026, BYD led Tesla in pure BEV deliveries with 557,090 units versus Tesla's 480,126 units, and on a full-year 2025 basis BYD also led with approximately 2.25 million units versus Tesla's approximately 1.64 million units. However, in Q1 2026 Tesla retook the lead with 358,023 units, illustrating how quarterly rankings frequently flip. On profitability, Tesla's FY2025 operating margin (4.6%) is lower than BYD's overseas gross margin (approximately 19.5%), while Tesla's market capitalization (over 1 trillion USD) far exceeds BYD's (approximately 100 billion USD), producing a divergence between volume rankings and market-value rankings.
Valuation (Factual Multiples)
As of 2026-07-17, Tesla trades at a trailing PER of approximately 362x, forward PER of approximately 175~193x, PBR of approximately 16.6~17x, and EV/EBITDA of approximately 131x. This represents a substantial premium over the automotive industry's median forward PER (13.18x, GuruFocus), contrasting with FY2025 net margin having deteriorated to a five-year low of 4.0% (factual observation).
Governance & Disclosure
| Shareholder/Executive | Ownership Stake | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Elon Musk (CEO) | 19.9% | 2026-06-16 (Schedule 13G/A) |
| Vanguard Capital Management | 5.61% | 2026-03-31 (Schedule 13G) |
| BlackRock, Inc. | 5.7% (update unconfirmed) | Disclosed 2024-01-29 |
On 2026-06-16, Elon Musk fully exercised the 2018 CEO performance award options for 339,600,630 shares (exercise price 23.34 USD), and even after accounting for the disposal of 17,531,857 shares for tax withholding purposes, retained a 19.9% ownership stake (as of June 16). The 2025 CEO Performance Award newly approved in September 2025 (totaling 423,743,904 shares, with a preliminary accounting fair-value estimate of approximately 87.5 billion USD) vests in tranches only upon simultaneously meeting 12 market-capitalization conditions and 12 operational conditions. On 2026-04-21, 96 million shares from the earlier 2025 CEO Interim Award were forfeited under the double-dipping prevention principle. Musk has pledged a portion of his Tesla shares as collateral for personal debt (approximately 236 million shares as of 2025-09-15).
Macro Environment
| Macro Factor | Current Value (As of) | Impact on Tesla |
|---|---|---|
| US Federal Funds Rate | 3.50~3.75% (held at 2026-06-17 FOMC) | Negative (auto loan burden) |
| New car loan rate (60-month average) | 6.92% (mid-2026-07) | Negative (purchase delays) |
| Lithium carbonate price | 151,000 yuan/ton (2026-07, 4-month low) | Positive (cost relief) |
| US IRA EV tax credit | Repealed (for deliveries after 2025-09-30) | Negative (US demand contraction) |
| US tariff on Chinese EV imports | Maintained at 100% | Positive (reduced US competition) |
| China EV purchase tax exemption | Reduced to 50% from 2026-01-01 | Negative (China demand slowdown) |
| University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index | 54.4 (2026-07 preliminary) | Positive (improved consumer sentiment) |
While the high-rate environment's auto loan burden and the repeal of the US IRA tax credit act as demand-side headwinds, falling lithium prices are favorable for battery costs, and the 100% tariff on Chinese imports is favorable for the US competitive landscape. In China, the reduction of the purchase tax exemption and intensifying competition with local brands such as BYD are proceeding simultaneously.
Supply-Demand Trends
| Item | Value | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Short interest | 79,109,257 shares (2.63% of float) | Settlement date 2026-06-30 (A) |
| Days to Cover | 1.7 days | 2026-06-30 (A) |
| Institutional ownership | 66.20% | As reported 2026-07-17~20 (A) |
| Put/Call ratio (volume basis) | 0.97 | As of survey date, reference estimate (E) |
Across two FINRA settlement dates in June 2026, short interest rose modestly (78.18 million→79.11 million shares) but remains low relative to past peaks, and with days-to-cover at 1.7 days, short-covering pressure is not significant. In Q1 2026 (as of March 31) 13F filings, institutional trading direction was mixed (e.g., H&H International Investment added approximately 3.4 million shares net, while Renaissance Technologies reduced approximately 1.15 million shares net).
Risk Factors
- NHTSA has escalated its investigation into FSD low-visibility conditions to an Engineering Analysis — the final stage before a potential recall — covering approximately 3.2 million vehicles; a total of three investigations are ongoing simultaneously, including a traffic-law-violation probe (approximately 2.88 million vehicles, 80 confirmed incidents) and a crash-reporting-practices inquiry.
- As of 2026, the aggregate claims in litigation facing Tesla are estimated at up to 14.5 billion USD, and in August 2025 a 243 million USD damages verdict was rendered in an Autopilot-related fatality lawsuit.
- Elon Musk has pledged a portion of his Tesla shares as collateral for personal debt (approximately 236 million shares as of 2025-09-15), and the 10-K identifies the possibility of forced collateral liquidation in the event of a sharp share-price decline as a potential risk factor.
- Automotive segment gross margin has fallen from approximately 28% in 2022 to 13.6% in the most recent quarter, reflecting ongoing margin pressure amid intensifying competition with BYD and others.
- On 2026-07-01, the first fatal accident involving the Tesla Semi (electric truck) occurred, adding regulatory and reputational burden to the new commercial-vehicle segment.
Recent News
- 2026-07-19 · Reports of production expansion at the Grünheide, Germany plant; NTSB released preliminary findings on a Texas Model 3 crash (driver overrode the system via the accelerator pedal while FSD was engaged).
- 2026-07-13 · TSLA shares fell 3.19% in a single day (407.76→394.76 USD).
- 2026-07-02 · Following the Q2 production and delivery report (deliveries of 480,126 units, +25% YoY), the disclosure of a large short position and the fatal Tesla Semi accident coincided, and shares fell approximately 8% intraday.
- 2026-07-03 · Robotaxi service expanded to Miami, the first city outside Texas and California to launch operations without a safety monitor.
- 2026-06-26 · Settlement reached in a 2023 Arizona FSD-related fatality lawsuit; the federal investigation continues.
- Scheduled 2026-07-22 · Q2 earnings release (after market close, conference call at 5:30 PM ET) — has not yet occurred as of the analysis date.
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Fact Highlights
Generated by FomoLog Agent · Data sources: KRX (Korea Exchange) · NASDAQ · DART · SEC EDGAR